Friday, May 29, 2009

Media Failure Part One: Radio and the Death of Indie 103.1 FM

A lot of talk in the blogosphere and in newspapers and magazines has been about the incipient failure of newspapers. The Christian Science Monitor has gone online only. The same has happened with the Seattle Post Intelligencer and other papers around the country, from Wisconsin to Tuscon. Television too, has had a rapid decline in viewers, with NBC posting the smallest ever average Prime-Time weekly audience (4.4 million viewers) outside the Summer doldrums since the dawn of Television in 1948. Clearly, all media are in trouble.

But it's in Radio that at least part of the problem, the demographic decline of young White people, is clear, and unmistakeable. Likely, no better example can be found than in LA's "Indie 103.1" short lifespan, and replacement by Spanish-language format.


Indie 103.1 began broadcasting it's Punk/Alternative mix in late December 2003, and flipped to Spanish Language radio in January 19, 2009. Over the short, five year lifespan, the radio station was featured on the Fox show "the OC" and on the MTV prank show "Punk'd." Always in competition with rival station KROQ 106.7 FM, the station nevertheless featured Punk/Alternative personalities like Steve Jones of the Sex Pistols, Joe Escalante of the Vandals, and Dickie Barrett of the Mighty, Mighty Bosstones as DJs or on-air personalities.

With a population of 17 million or thereabouts, it would seem that there would be more than enough listeners for both KROQ and Indie 103.1 to survive. After all, Los Angeles has two all-news AM stations, KFWB and KNX. Why not two Alternative/Punk stations? The answer is simple, there simply are not enough young (White) people in the LA Metro area to sustain two stations.

To get a flavor of the full list of LA Radio stations (familiar to anyone driving in and around Los Angeles), I've compiled the listings below from the sources here, here, and here. The listings below give the FM stations (note some, like KUCI 88.9. FM are clear only in limited areas, while others have strong signals). LA's mountains and valleys make reception iffy in some areas, and transmitters may operate under reduced power making geographic spread smaller than in say, flat and open Dallas. Reduced signal strength allows both KUCI and KTLW (operating out of I believe, Antelope Valley) to share the same frequency. The LA Metro area is a big market. Some stations also broadcast over the same frequency but with different call signs, but the same simulcast programs.

FM Stations:




























































































































































































































































































































Call Letter Frequency Language Format
KKJZ 88.1FM English Jazz, Blues
KCSN 88.5FM English Classical
KUCI 88.9FM English College
KTLW 88.9FM English Christian
KXLU 88.9FM English College
KPCC 89.3FM English Public
KCRW 89.9FM English Public
KBPK 90.1FM English Adult Contemporary
KSAK 90.1FM English College
KPFK 90.7FM English Public
KUSC 91.5FM English Classical
KHHT 92.3FM English Urban Contemporary
KLIT 92.7FM English Adult Contemporary
KCBS 93.1FM English Classic Rock
KDAY 93.5FM English Hip Hop
KMVN 93.9 FM Spanish Spanish
KEBN 94.3 FM Spanish Spanish
KBUA 94.3 FM Spanish Spanish
KTWV 94.7 FM English Smooth Jazz
KLOS 95.5 FM English Classic Rock
KFSH 95.9 FM English Christian
KXOL 96.3 FM Spanish Spanish
KFXM 96.7 FM Spanish Spanish
KLSX 97.1 FM English Adult Contemporary
KLYV 97.5 FM Spanish Spanish
KLAX 97.9 FM Spanish Spanish
KYSR 98.7 FM English Adult Contemporary
nina 99.1 FM Spanish Hip Hop
KKLA 99.5 FM English Christian
KOLA 99.9 FM English Adult Contemporary
KKBT 100.3 FM English Hip Hop
KRTH 101.1 FM English Oldies
KSCA 101.9 FM Spanish Spanish
KJLH 102.3 FM English Urban Contemporary
KIIS 102.7 FM English Top 40
KDLE 103.1 FM Spanish Spanish
KDLD 103.1 FM Spanish Spanish
KOST 103.5 FM English Adult Contemporary
KRCD 103.9 FM Spanish Spanish
KBIG 104.3 FM English Adult Contemporary
KKGO 105.1 FM English Country
KBUE 105.5 FM Spanish Spanish
KOSS 105.5 FM Spanish Spanish
KPWR 105.9 FM English Hip Hop
KGMX 106.3 FM English Adult Contemporary
KALI 106.3 FM Spanish Spanish
KROQ 106.7 FM English Alternative
KSSE 107.1 FM Spanish Spanish
KLVE 107.5 FM Spanish Spanish
KTYS 107.9 FM English Hip Hop
KQVM 107.9 FM English Dance




The AM stations are listed below:




















































































































































































































































Call Letter Frequency Language Format
KTVO 530 AM English News
KMBR 530 AM English Easy Listening
KGIL 540 AM English Talk
KLAC 570 AM English Sports
KAVL 610 AM English Sports
KFI 640 AM English Talk
KIRN 670 AM Asian Asian
KXTRA 690 AM English Talk
KSPN 710 AM English Sports
KBRT 740 AM English Christian
KABC 790 AM English Talk
KLAA 830 AM English Sports
KRLA 870 AM English Talk
KALI 900 AM Spanish Spanish
KHJ 930 AM Spanish Spanish
KFWB 980 AM English News
KTNQ 1020 AM Spanish Spanish
KNX 1070 AM English News
XEPRS 1090 AM English Sports
KDIS 1110 AM English Kids
KXTA 1150 AM English Talk
KXMX 1190 AM Spanish Spanish
KHTS 1220 AM English Adult Contemporary
KYPA 1230 AM Asian Asian
KGIL 1260 AM English Talk
KSUR 1260 AM English Oldies
KFRN 1280 AM English Christian
KAZN 1300 AM Asian Asian
KWKW 1330 AM Spanish Spanish
KWJL 1380 AM English Oldies
KLTX 1390 AM Spanish Spanish
KMRB 1430 AM Asian Asian
KTYM 1460 AM English Christian
KUTY 1470 AM spanish Spanish
KVNR 1480 AM Asian Asian
KSPA 1510 AM English Sports
KMPC 1540 AM Asian Asian
KBLA 1580 AM Spanish Spanish
KFOX 1650 AM Asian Asian



Immediately, two things pop out from the list. One is the predominance of Spanish-language in the FM band, a band formerly reserved for well, Anglo music, be it Rock, Classical, or Jazz. Secondly, the dominance of Spanish language and Asian language radio in Los Angeles's AM bands.

The two graphs below illustrate this:


[click Image to enlarge]


[click Image to enlarge]

Several other things stand out. As anyone who has listened to KCRW, or KKJZ knows, public radio stations are not exactly commercial free. They have frequent pledge breaks, where say, KCRW General Manager Ruth Seymour urges listeners to pledge dollars for various goodies and so on. In between music, public affairs program (such as "To the Point With Warren Olney") or news, sponsors run frequent "image building" ads touting their "responsibility." It's straight out of "Stuff White People Like" (the blog and book) or ABC's "the Goode Family."

Nevertheless, without the Public Broadcasting presence on the FM band, it would probably have more Asian and Spanish language stations in the LA area. There are at least five Public stations on the FM band in LA (KUCI, KCRW, KUSC, KKJZ, KPFK, are the ones I know). It is telling that in a metro area of 17 million people, there is only one major Classical station (KUSC-FM) and one major Jazz station (KKJZ, formerly KLON-FM, Long Beach). Both broadcasting out of universities (USC and Cal State Long Beach, respectively) as Public Broadcasting Stations.

Next, it's the nature of the successful radio stations on the AM band, that are NOT either Asian or Spanish language. There are six sports talk stations, and seven talk radio stations that are in English in the AM band (station XEPRS 1090 AM is included because South Orange County picks it up from San Diego). Those are nearly the numbers of the Spanish and Asian languages, and account for 56% of the English Language AM stations. That number rises to 65% if you throw in the two all-news stations, KNX and KFWB.

What does this tell you?

In a marketplace (AM, which is totally commercial, no Public Radio) where reaching listeners equals operating profits or losses (if your station does not reach listeners), owners choose mostly English language Sports, Talk/News, or Spanish language, or Asian language formats, with a smattering of oldies or Christian formats in English thrown in.

The LA Almanac here has some interesting data. You can see that several things are immediately apparent. First, that there are more Hispanics than Whites in LA County (unfortunately, there is no source that aggregates the multi-county areas of LA Metropolitan region, including LA, Orange, Riverside, San Bernadino, and Ventura counties). This alone drives up Spanish Language stations, and under-reporting (lots of illegal aliens not counted) could lead to substantially higher numbers of Hispanic/Mexican consumers that advertisers selling cola, candy, and other low-cost consumer goods would want to reach. There are also a substantial amount of Asians, more than Blacks in sheer numbers, accounting for Asian radio. It's likely that the amount of Asians has only increased since the 2000 Census.

But also, well just how OLD LA County is with respect to it's White population.

The graph below (aggregated ages 20-21 for sake of smoothing out age cohorts) shows WHY Indie 103.1 failed. Men and women aggregated together do not cross the 200,000 threshold until the late 20's at least. Moreover, there are few young people in the pipeline, take a look at the younger White Angelino cohorts. There's not that many of them. Even assuming that the cohort increases post college (people move to the LA Area), there still is not that many of them. Note also, the slight but decided greater numbers of men, particularly in the late twenties through thirties, over women, among LA County Whites.


[click Image to Enlarge]

Many things Indie 103.1 did during it's broadcast existence puzzled me. The emphasis on Trader Joes sponsored Morning Show Wine Tastings. The use of minor celebrities like Timothy Oliphant and David Lynch to do morning sports and weather. Looking at the demographic breakdown by age cohort, it makes perfect sense. Indie tried to grab the small amount of Yuppie Whites in their thirties and forties and FAILED. EPIC FAIL.

Yes, no doubt Satellite Radio played a part in the demise of Indie 103.1. But note that the station posted negative results in the Arbitron ratings after the recession started to hit, just when people would be looking to escape from costly Satellite Radio into free FM.

It seems there just weren't enough Alternative Yuppies to make Indie 103.1 a go against KROQ, and certainly not enough younger kids (Indie 103.1's 80's Nostalgia Wave makes retrospective sense) to drive newness and sensation seeking to the station. The stations that ARE successful are those that cater to the demographic bulge, around the thirties through the fifties, and the older population that is at least as big as the younger one. Itself a shocking change from what we conceived as "classic" America from say, the 1900's onward through the 1960's, with each generation of young people getting bigger than the cohort that went before.

Now, it gets smaller each generation.

For those traveling through Los Angeles, who wonder why LA radio is a barrage of Spanish, Asian, and not much else, the graph below shows it all:


[click Image to Enlarge]

What are the broader lessons from the failure of Indie 103.1 FM?

One: Your demographic slice your media targets must be large enough.
Two: White America is older and more conservative than the Yuppie model of "Stuff White People Like."
Three: There are not many young Whites, most young people are Hispanic.
Four: Youth-oriented media mostly fails.
Five: Betting it all on Yuppies with lots of money is a bad long-term bet, because there just isn't enough base population of Whites to generate enough Yuppies with money. A recession can kill the business.
Six: The biggest slice of Whites ages 30-59 seem to like Sports and Talk Radio, much of the latter overtly conservative.
Seven: Radio is the reverse image of Television, it's male dominated, with male personalities in Sports and Talk (and even Alternative Rock DJs during drive time). There is nothing like "the View" on AM or FM LA Radio.
Eight: Much of the Yuppie entertainment infrastructure in current radio is a Public Broadcasting anomaly. Making the Yuppie Radio presence bigger than it appears. Since most Public Broadcast stations depend on pledge drives plus NPR subsidies to operate, not ad revenues based on ratings.

But it all boils down to much of White America is older, and more conservative, than you'd think. Certainly compared to the Hispanic population, which is much, much younger.

22 comments:

Canadian Club said...

Seven: Radio is the reverse image of Television, it's male dominated, with male personalities in Sports and Talk (and even Alternative Rock DJs during drive time). There is nothing like "the View" on AM or FM LA Radio.I think this is an interesting point. I’m not an expert but my understanding of advertiser driven media was that it tended to become female oriented because they make the majority of the purchasing decisions. So how did radio become a male haven?

Interesting article Whiskey. I hope there really is a part two coming. I’ve been waiting patiently for part two of “Decline of the West” to no avail.

Whiskey said...

Decline of the West 2 is coming. I want to make sure all my cites are solid.

Next up is Newspapers, followed by TV.

TV is indeed as you say, female-driven because of advertiser desires to reach mostly women, but it wasn't always so (1980's shows like "the A-Team" and "Miami Vice" were very popular among men) and that strategy is hitting the wall.

More telling, Radio Stations operate on thin margins, flip formats frequently (KMPC used to be an English Language talk station), and don't have large, hugely capitalized mega-media corps able to bleed cash for a long time. The requirement to create an operating profit forces Radio to serve it's customers, advertisers, far more nimbly.

After all, you have a captive audience of millions during morning and afternoon/evenings Drive-Time. People need the basics: traffic, news, weather, sports, plus entertainment, particularly in the Mornings.

The types of ads too, are different on Radio. Far more Male oriented, far more abrupt and loud, for things like Big Screen TVs, Mattresses, and so on that if run on Television would very female oriented.

What stands out in Radio advertising is how LOCAL rather than national advertisers use it to reach men. Commercials are cheap, not much production value, and absent the whole Ad Agency Creative elite that produces the sort of SWPL Yuppie sneer at Joe Average. The Local advertisers can't afford campaigns that don't make them money, so they go after mostly men (who don't have much ads focused on them) directly.

KNX and KFWB, for example, run lots of ads for "Three Day Suit Broker" which almost never advertises on local TV.

Foxfier, formerly Sailorette said...

The only commercials on talk radio that I can think of that are identical to norm TV are...well, those stupid gov't funded ones.

Anonymous said...

Our indie rock station got replaced by a spanish-language station like 10 years ago. Way to be behind the times.

freak show said...

whiskey, what do you think about (97.1) klsx's change of format from adult contemporary to a pop format. they lost a lot of prime male listeners, but this was offset by gaining more pre- adolescent/adolescent female listeners and not having to pay exorbitant sums for quality talk show hosts, like tom leykis.

i mention leykis because he's a much older version of roissy. his show was all about gaming as many women as possible for as little money as possible.

i am interested in your take on the matter, esp. if you think the station's change in format was at all influenced by the demographic decline you are talking about.

maybe today there are just a lesser amount of attractive, nubile los angeleno white women and a lesser amount of unattached los angeleno white guys to build a compelling radio urban sex talk format around in southern california. indeed, maybe there are attractive non- white women and unattached non- white guys in the same region for whom game is less relevant.

specifically, maybe the violence endemic to some of the seedier, more populous and non- white regions of los angeles makes game less relevant. in other words, perhaps a lot of latino guys from east l.a. don't need (as much) game to get their women because they can just resort to more primal displays of power to garner attractive latin chicks. therefore, these segments wouldn't need to listen to leykis as much. he got great ratings, btw. but, as the linchpin of the station, maybe he needed even better ratings to justify the salaries of himself and the other talk show hosts on the station... just a thought.

Anonymous said...

Whiskey,

Your post hits on themes Ive been preaching about for years. Less white youth= less white culture at some point, and the boomers will be around to see it (and kvetch endlessly about it) in their declining years.



Roissy wouldn't post what Im about to post (he has me on comment moderation), but I want you to take a look at a nuts-n-bolts reason why women aren't having kids. It will seem glib at first, but after reading my explanation, I think you'll see the light. Im going to post five or six pictures for you to look at first.


The -REAL- Eva Longoria,
http://www.dollmyface.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/eva-longoria-without-makeup2.jpg


The -REAL- Jennifer Lopez,
http://i18.tinypic.com/4y6axpl.jpg


The -REAL- Kate Hudson,http://www.womenrepublic.co.uk/usw/4nokateh.jpg


The -REAL- (supermodel!)Kate Moss,
http://www.entertainmentwise.com/photos/Image/kate_kate_makeup430.jpg



The -REAL- Brooke Shields,http://thebeautystop.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/7.jpg


The -REAL- Jennifer Garner (holy shit!)http://thebeautystop.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/216.jpg

Christina Ricci (LOL), http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/05/23/article-0-015AC17E00000578-769_468x761.jpg

Did you look at all of those photos Whiskey? Would you be intimidated to "opening" any one of them? I bet not after seeing what they really look like if they had to present themselves just as men do, without artifice.


Here is my point and premise. Make-up hasn't been around in mass usage all that long, and there is a reason that Church of Christ, Quakers, and other conservative denominations denounce its usage. I think we are seeing it.


To wit Whiskey: The average 5 can add a easy point to her face (at least, I think 2 points) with make up and creating illusion and depth in places, shrinking some things (noses) and enlarging others (eyes). Fake eyelashes and heavy mascera make anyone look better. Thats why Johnny Depp uses them in all his movies. Big pores get diminished, blemishes concealed, color gets added to sallow skin tone (blush). You name it. Add fake hair color to the mix, and hairspray....which allows for styles that conceal akward head shapes. So much of what you see on females is artifice.

Now consider two other "artificial" enhancements: Breast implants and the acceptedness of showing skin. Add one more point. What is our average 5 now Whiskey? She is a 7.

6's become 8's. 7's become 8.5's, 8's become 9's.


The breast implants really help "spoon" women who usually have nice hips and asses, but are almost always flat chested "in the wild".


Why does this hurt the birthrate you may ask Whiskey? Simple..........average gals can get the attention of the top 20% of men with these artifices. When I lived with those two bouncers who brought home astonishing amounts of women, what was so suprising to me is that they would both keep 3-4 women "on the string" at any one time, and that 2 or 3 of them would be 5's, 6's, or 7's when they were "hunting" women who were at least 8 and above. I'd ask them why and they'd tell me, "she beats what I have in my hand on weeknights". The top 20% of men all are out there occupying about 2 women each (and some run 3 or 4 like my pals did). I'd say the top 20% of men are taking up the time and years of the top 50% of women, and these gals will lead themselves on until they are rapidly approaching 40 before realizing that that guy in the top 10th percentile is not going to ever marry that gal who is a 6 with her makeup off (and especially if you could take her fake tits away).

A.J. Travis said...

Whiskey-

Ahhh, The city of Angles I remember it well.

Excellent analysis as always. I'm always glad to see a new post.

Public radio should be stripped of it's government funding and forced compete for ad dollars like every other station.

They would all go bankrupt or change format in a year tops.

TGGP said...

I once came across some poll numbers showing that more NPR listeners were conservative than liberal. This (though it's old) says they both make up 30 percent of listeners. You're right about age, they're mostly 35 to 54.

Some years back a favorite rock station of mine got suddenly turned into a lite station because that lite station had got bought out by a spanish one. Fortunately there was a very similar station nearby that much of the crew moved over to. Like most commercial stations none of them played punk (though I suppose I might have more stringent standard for the label) but there's a college rock station around here that does. The jazz station I listen to is also a public one based out of a college and it does pledges (the college rock station is amateurish and presumably doesn't need as much money to do that and instead asks for underwriting).

A.J. Travis said...

BTW-

I like the way your blog just shows the first paragraph of each post.

Can you tell me how to do that?

Thanks,

AJ

Jay F said...

Whiskey, you say radio leans male, but there are several stations that target female. How about Ryan Seacrest on 102.7 KIIS? His show, with all the celebrity gossip is sort of like a radio version of "the View" but with a more youthful demographic.

Freak Show, The trends Whiskey talked about do in part explain the format change on 97.1. The early Arbitron ratings do look good for AMP Radio and a large portion of the audience is young Hispanics.

Kevin K said...

In DC, we get a nightly show hosted by Delilah. Its like an atomic bomb of female orientation. We also get a very politicized Christian FM station hosted by a women in the afternoon's that I don't know the name of, but seems rather female oriented in an angry way.

I sometimes think I'm the last person on earth with only an AM/FM radio in my car.

Homophobic Horse said...

OT: Read this Whiskey

Journalist raped by Taliban, converts to Islam

Sgt. Joe Friday said...

103.1 had a crappy signal too, at least here in my part of the OC.

The interesting thing about LA radio is that some of the Spanish stations have huge ratings, yet they exist on the cusp of insolvency, unable to charge the same for their ad time as English language stations with much lower ratings (the on-air talent is likewise poorly paid). This is no doubt a reflection of the stations' listener profile (poor, Spanish speaking only, not much education). Stations like KABC with ratings perrenially stuck in the low 2's are profitable because advertisers recognize that the typical KABC listener has an income several times greater than the guy listening to Piolin por la Manana while he's seeping floors somewhere.

FWIW, one morning I was listening to a Spanish station's call-in legal advice show. Call after call (and I'm not making this up) was a variation on "my husband (boyfriend) beats me and/or doesn't pay child support." I don't know if that was just who happened to be calling in, or if the producer/call screener thought that was compelling radio but no one at the station seems to have said "hey, this is boring/repetitive and reflects poorly on our listening audience."

Novaseeker said...

"I like the way your blog just shows the first paragraph of each post.

Can you tell me how to do that?"

AJ --

You need to edit the html. Blogger help has some info here: http://help.blogger.com/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=42215

Whiskey said...

Thanks Novaseeker. I was going to add that the relevant info is here. Good tip, copy the template file into a Text Editor, use find to go to the places where you need to edit the style sheets and other HTML stuff. Make sure to make a backup before you start making changes.

Freakshow -- I think Leykis (I'm familiar with him, he is sort of like Roissy) was on the wrong format. Talk tends to be segregated on AM bands, KLSX was always an oddball. But you are right, the relationship stuff just doesn't have enough of a large, White, YOUNG population to make it work.

FWIW, KROQ's Loveline runs at Midnight or some absurd hour, when no one is really listening. Their morning show used to have "Ralph" do various relationship stuff (it was pretty raunchy) until management shut it down. Most of the relationship stuff aimed at the younger audience seems to be raunch or Dr. Drew medical stuff, not Roissy type advice. For all LA's "diversity" it's pretty much ... mostly Mexican.

Whiskey said...

Jay --

True, KIIS-FM and a few other stations trend female, but Radio is still mostly male. Seacrest is of course the target of male-oriented mocking by the KROQ crew, because their morning drive time male listeners love it.

I wonder if Stern will return to terrestrial radio. Sirius/XM is in trouble, financially, and while I'm sure he likes the freedom from the FCC, Obama is making noises to regulate Satellite Radio as well as cable.

Certainly without Stern, the syndicators struggled to replace him. Carolla, the Mancow guy, and whoever else they got regionally is not replacing Stern.

If KISS-FM could get Stern, they'd drop Seacrest in a second. Heck if they could get Carolla they'd drop Seacrest. It's sort of an alternative play in a crowded drive-time market.

Oh yes, Homophobic Horse. I read it. Unbelievable. Or all too believable.

Sgt. Friday -- yep 103.1's signal was poor here too in my part of OC.

db said...

agreed this is really sad. even worse in my opinion, though, was when 103.1 was briefly a dance music station. remember that? sometime around 2002 or 2003 i think.

as it turns out, their programming was so popular it started to attract actual listeners. and those listeners came from KIIS and other big stations. KIIS and all those corporate stations make $ based on the number of listeners, so if they have a decline they must address it.

in this case, they shut down the dance music station because people liked it. :( they started indie 103.1 thinking that that stuff would also never catch on....

btw, totally off-topic, but no wonder roissy banned that anony guy. how creepy is that shit?

WHITE SURVIVAL said...

Hey whiskey - you seem to be very interested in issues related to the White race and its preservation/prosperity...check out: http://www.toqonline.com/

stratomunchkin said...

Not trying to drag the LR debate over to your home turf, but I'm not a Roissy commenter, so I'd comment on your comment there here (jeez, that sounds awkward).

This
http://roissy.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/low-class.jpg?w=330&h=249
is not someone who is 38.

This, however,
http://roissy.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/old-broad.jpg?w=315&h=310
very much fits that bill. Strange enough. I doubt that there has passed much time between those two pics, maybe two, three years max. Does not bode well for her self-described life style, though. ;-)

That being said, she sure is the epitome of everything wrong with women that you discuss in a broader context on your blog.

turtle said...

whiskey,
i enjoy your blog and comments over at roissy, AoS, and Big Hollywood.

I am puzzled about the cratering of the “youth” demographic in both whites and hispanics. Both graphs show a definate dearth of people aged 14-30 as compared to younger and older than that group. Any ideas?

Whiskey said...

DB, not familiar with the anony guy? Or maybe I forgot.

WRT Lady Raine over at Roissy's, she sounds as if she's older than claimed. Probably 38. Nothing wrong with that, but if it's true explains a lot of things.

Turtle -- the White cratering is due to obviously, the high cost of having kids. Mates are most often found in high-cost coastal urban places like Seattle, Portland, NYC's Brooklyn Park Slope, etc. You can't afford to have kids there, naturally, and the temptation is to keep playing musical partners to trade up in value. Often past peak fertility for women. This means at best one kid.

For Hispanics, the situation *might* be similar. It's complicated because romance-minded men might head home to Mexico if they are illegals to find a girl, hard luck finding one in the US where most migrants are still overwhelmingly men. It might be that lacking families just moving en-masse (and mostly male wage earners doing it) cross-border legally or illegally, kids in that age range exist but are in Mexico not the US. Or alternatively, that it's just too expensive for Hispanics here concentrated in high cost areas of the coastal metro areas to have kids like for White populations.

The weird thing is that Third Generation Mexican-origin women have kids at a much higher rate. Compared to first-generation and second generation. That might be a function of where they live (move to lower cost areas, easier to afford living space for kids) and also improved class of possible mates (i.e. not male-dominated migrant workers but a stable and gender balanced population).

One thing for certain, we ARE running out of young people. This will create a crisis in the youth-oriented markets.

Steve Sailer said...

Indie 103.1 was aimed at late Baby Boomers like me, people who remember, say, Steve Jones from his Sex Pistols days, and like the fact that he's now such an amiable geezer and a good musician. There are a lot of us white oldsters left in LA, but the station's problem was that we just don't like music all that much anymore to listen that much. Basically, it was a nostalgia rock station for younger middle-aged white sophisticates, so it got a lot of press, but not enough ratings.

KROQ is more narrowly focused at white 13 to 23-year-olds, who really do like music. KROQ's music selection is intentionally puerile to keep to many old farts like me from listening to it and thus making it uncool with teens.