Sunday, September 13, 2009

NBC's Leno Gamble: The Revenge of the Audience


The Wall Street Journal recently ran a story on NBC's big gamble on Jay Leno. Leno's new show, debuting Monday, at 10 PM (Eastern-Pacific) and running from Monday through Friday, will have substantially lower ad rates. From $137,000 per 30 second spot, for "Law and Order SVU" last October, to between $55,000 and $75,000 for a 30 second spot on Leno's show (in the same time period). This amounts to a drop of between 45% and 60% in the ad rates. Clearly, advertisers don't expect many people to be watching, and those that do to be older (and therefore set in their brand preferences). The article further notes that collectively, ABC, CBS, and NBC's audience has declined 23% from the numbers three seasons ago (2005). NBC declined 20% in that hour from 2007-2008 (ironically, the year the writer's strike decimated scripted television around October).

But buried in the numbers, is the story of the revenge of the audience. In the 2006-2007 season, the audience started leaving network television at that hour (FOX does not broadcast shows from 10-11 pm). The networks put on generally poor entertainment (with a few notable exceptions) and the audience responded by not watching.


Note this collapse preceded the writer's strike (ill-conceived, and worse managed) that alienated or taught viewers not to watch the networks at 10-11 pm. Some did worse, while others managed a slight rally. ABC is down a full 26% from the 2005-2006 season lineup. In 2005 ABC had the following 10-11 pm shows: Grey's Anatomy, part of Monday Night Football (on the East Coast), What About Brian, Boston Legal, Invasion, Primetime Live, 20/20. In 2008 ABC had Brothers and Sister, Boston Legal, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money, Life on Mars, and 20/20.

For ABC, sending Monday Night Football to ESPN was a stupid move. The ostensible reason (ABC wanted to become a "female only" network and promote "Desperate Housewives" without the bother of Monday Night Football interfering with ABC's fall schedule) was a failure to think strategically. Desperate Housewives aged, rapidly, and will end (reportedly) in May 2011. Hardly a match for Monday Night Football's reliable 30 year run at ABC, and continuing attraction to male sports fans, year after year after year.

Also aging in appeal was Grey's Anatomy, Boston Legal, and 20/20, one of many cable and network magazine "news" shows. Brothers and Sisters, Eli Stone, Dirty Sexy Money, and Life on Mars were outright flops. While only What About Brian and Invasion were flops in 2005. ABC has declined steadily, though not much in 2008-2009 from the previous strike year, with Brothers and Sisters, the Bachelor, Boston Legal, Dirty Sexy Money, Big Shots, and 2o/20 in the strike-shortened lineup. Clearly, ABC bet heavily on the female audience, to the exclusion of nearly anything that would appeal to men (at least in that 10-11 pm timeslot) and suffered fairly steady losses from 2005, although the network did about the same the year after the writer's strike as the year of the strike.

CBS, which 29% more viewers 10-11 pm than ABC, and 10% more viewers than NBC at that hour, dropped a whopping 35% from its 2005-2006 audience. Viewers like what CBS had to offer in 2005-2006, and then they did not. CBS, like ABC, did nearly the same the year after the writer's strike as the year before, their two big losses were the 2006-2007 season, and the 2007-2008 season (the writer's strike). It's understandable why CBS would lose nearly 900,000 viewers in the writer's strike season, or about 22% of viewers from the prior season, but what prompted the loss of one million viewers during the 10-11 pm time period from the 2005-2006 season to the the 2006-2007 season? A loss, moreover, of 20%? CBS in 2005-2006 had: part of the CBS Sunday Movie, CSI Miami, Close to Home, CSI NY, Without a Trace, NUMB3RS, 48 Hours Mystery, and mid-season, the Unit. The following season (2006-2007), CBS had: Without a Trace, CSI Miami, Smith, CSI New York, Shark, and NUMB3RS.

CBS had a couple of flops, but CSI Miami did nearly as well in the ratings in the following season as the year before (2005-2006 vs. 2006-2007). Without a Trace lost about 4 million viewers that year (from 2005-2006, to 2006-2007). CSI NY had very little drop-off in terms of viewers. So too, NUMB3RS had little drop-off. The flops, and the poor performance of Without a Trace that year, led viewers to abandon CBS and not come back. While CBS, alone of it's competitors, staged a rally at 10-11 pm last season, after the writer's strike taught audiences not to watch network television, the rally was modest, only a 3% improvement.

NBC's drop has been stunning, and very uneven. From 2005-2006, to 2008-2009, NBC's audience dropped 1.6 million viewers at 10-11 pm. That is a drop of 35%, easily matching CBS's fall. NBC has the reputation of the least-watched network, but a mere four years ago, it was very close to CBS in terms of viewers, only 10% lower in viewers at the 10-11 pm hour. Moreover, NBC, after losing 21% of it's 2005-2006 viewers in the 2006-2007 season, posted a 3% gain in 2007-2008, largely over shows such as Life and Chuck that attracted new (read: Male) viewers to the network. With the strike, however, NBC just could not keep these viewers. NBC in 2005-2006 had Crossing Jordan, Medium, Law and Order SVU, Law and Order, and Inconceivable in the 10-11 pm slots. The following season, NBC had part of Sunday Night Football, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, Law and Order SVU, Kidnapped, ER, and Law and Order.

The only major flop NBC had was Inconceivable and Kidnapped. Law and Order declined only slightly in viewers over the two seasons, as did Law and Order SVU as did ER.

Certainly, something happened between the 2005-2006 season and the season thereafter, to turn substantial amounts of viewers away from network television at the hour (and likely, from network television altogether). ABC had the fewest viewers to start, but lost only 26% of it's viewers from 2005-2006. CBS and NBC had substantially more viewers than ABC, and lost more, both dropping 35% from 2005-2006 to 2008-2009. Both networks experienced their biggest drop in viewers at 10-11 pm the season of 2006-2007. Both had costly flops (though so did ABC), but there the similarities end. NBC actually rallied slightly, unlike CBS, in the strike year of 2007-2008. With various male-oriented action-drama series, particularly Life and Chuck, NBC had a "halo effect" and "Life," "Journeyman," and "Las Vegas" had definite appeal to men. Life did alright the first season, considering the issues of the writers strike and scheduling. Journeyman less well, Las Vegas not particularly well.

It seems striking looking at the graph, however, that something definitely happened between the start of the fall season in 2005, and the end of the 2006-2007 season in August, to drive away millions of viewers who used to watch network TV. Perhaps CBS's "Crimetime" police procedural shows got old and tired, and NBC's Law and Orderen family to repetitive and boring. The danger with franchises is that eventually, and particularly with scripted entertainment, as opposed to sports, viewers want novelty and excitement, and seek it elsewhere. A good deal of the decline of CBS and NBC can be traced to poor shows, and NBC's brief, strike-shortened rally, traced to two shows that generated buzz and excitement ("Chuck" and "Life") and created a halo effect around the network.

But if this article is correct, much of NBC and CBS's problems are structural — younger men are not watching. Certainly the networks have gotten older and noticeably much older than cable networks that have shows to attract younger viewers. CBS has responded by doubling down on its Crimetime with an NCIS spin-off, and targeting women with a pick-up of the canceled NBC show Medium, new shows the Good Wife and Three Rivers. NBC has added new shows Mercy and Trauma, and of course Jay Leno at 10 pm, Monday through Friday.

All this is of course, merely a band-aid over a bleeding wound. Strange as it may seem, once upon a time, all three networks actually ran new, scripted shows on SATURDAY. Yes, Saturday. Once upon a time, highly rated shows such as the Bob Newhart Show, the Love Boat, Fantasy Island, all ran on Saturday. The last network to run new programming on Saturday was CBS in 2003-2004, NBC last running new programming in 1999-2000, and ABC last running new programming in 1998-1999. Of course FOX runs America's Most Wanted and COPS on Saturdays, but neither are scripted shows.

The networks, much like American coffee roasters in the 1960's, using cheap robusta beans instead of costlier (but tastier) arabica beans, have weaned whole sections of the audience off their product. Younger men in particular are the most likely explanation of why both CBS and NBC had such a downturn in viewers after the 2005-2006 season. There may simply have been a tipping point where younger male viewers simply turned away from network television. The easiest thing in the world is simply to not watch, and DVDs, online material (in whatever form), video games, and the like offer ample substitutions for a younger male audience fleeing what rapidly became a gay-female ghetto: network television.

None of this happened overnight. ABC had a few shows (most of their schedule in the 1990's were female-skewing sitcoms) through 1995-96 that appealed to men. This, was, notably, well inside the cable television era. Easy money chasing the "New Girl Order" allowed execs to avoid making hard decisions to keep or woo the male audience, particularly the young male audience. Like the coffee roasters simply "accepting" loss of a generation or three of customers, the networks allowed men and particularly young men to drift away. As late as the early 1990's, network schedules had shows such as "Sledge Hammer!" and "McGyver" and "The Young Riders." Too much easy money in the 1990's, left the networks exposed for a sustained downturn.

Now, further cost-cutting (in the case of NBC for the Jay Leno show) and derivative, mostly female-oriented shows for CBS and NBC, promise even lower ratings and the prospect of serious trouble. All three networks have basically conceded any effort to reverse losses, looking merely to lose viewers more slowly, than regain them back.

First, Saturdays were conceded, after the 2003-2004 season, by the last hold-out, CBS. Then male viewers were deemed un-necessary. Then, male-oriented action left the schedule. Sadly, almost no Fall 2009 shows except NCIS and the NCIS spin off feature any real male-oriented action at all, a sharp contrast from the schedule of 1999-2000 which featured male-action "Angel," "the Pretender," "Martial Law," "Walker, Texas Ranger," "Nash Bridges," "Harsh Realm," and "Seven Days." Seven male skewing action-adventure shows versus only two, both from the same franchise.

This is a recipe for irrelevance. Already, cable networks are growing in audience, and people are viewing online various movies (and current and older TV series) on their own schedule. Cable networks have younger, and more male viewers. Certainly shows like "Burn Notice" and "Psych" have a larger male following than say, "Desperate Housewives."

The current audience of women, a few older folks, and tween girls (the CW network) is not enough to sustain anything more than continued losses. Unlike newer cable networks such as USA or FX, the broadcast networks have large, built-in costs, including news divisions, owned and operated stations, and a pricey affiliate structure. Unlike online sites such as Hulu, networks cannot serve many disparate audiences and viewers at once. The end of the 2005-2006 season may have been an inflection point, a time when younger male audiences felt the networks "jumped the shark" and left for greener pastures.

This doesn't mean they cannot come back, anymore than the failure of Folgers and Maxwell House to make good coffee in the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's meant that America would never drink coffee again. But it is unlikely that the new entertainment "Starbucks" will be named NBC, ABC, CBS, or even FOX. Far more likely is a combination of cable or online ventures breaking through to mass popularity by serving men and boys along with women and girls, relegating the broadcast networks (in a time of recession, when cheap and free is something generally preferred by customers) to Folgers status.

And that, never mind Jay Leno, is no joke.

12 comments:

ERM said...

How much TV do you watch, Whiskey?

Rookh Kshatriya said...

The decline of the MSM (Mainstream Media) is a great opportunity, not something to lament. Such media promote the existing Anglo-American hegemony, which is intrinsically misandrist and matriarchal. If the MSM wither, then their control withers also, offering great opportunities to the cultural revolutionary.

Athol Kay said...

World of Warcraft started on 11/23/04. That's where a crapload of young guys went.

Whiskey said...

ERM -- A LOT. TV, at it's best, has nearly 17 hours to tell a story per season, not limited to the 2 hour form of movies, allowing greater depth of characterization, better writing (writer/producers have more power in TV vs. movies), and generally better acting.

Athol -- THANKS! I knew SOMETHING happened.

Rook -- I think also that there will be a new winner. Perhaps ironically USA (a GE-NBC network) or a Game company, under earnings pressure, seeking to branch out to tv/movies, or even maybe Valiant Entertainment or Dark Horse. Lower capital costs mean almost anyone can play.

ironrailsironweights said...

The Leno show might do very well, by tapping into an audience of working people who are interested in watching that form of talk/variety show but can't stay up late enough to watch the existing 11:30 (or later) ones.

Peter

Marquis said...

this is a very interesting analysis. thanks.

Mr.M said...

How has the G4 network done over the past few years?

It seems like a network that is catered to the male audience with "Attack of the Show" and "X-play." Shoot, just this past weekend it aired Fight Club. Has shows such as "Ninja Warrior" and "Cops" ...

If what you're saying about the big networks is true, then I would assume G4 is doing pretty damn good.

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Whiskey,

The Networks seem to have the same problem as the publishing industry.

They both don't have people at the first book/script reader or the higher acquisition editor levels who knows beans about what straight males want.

Jim Baen formed Baen Books with the specific mandate to write science fiction books drawing on a more 'traditional' heroic motif.

This is why Baen Books dominates (owns really) the 15-55 year old male audience in SF.

The key is that Baen books has a tiny staff with no bureaucracy to protect value-subtracted idiots.

This is why Baen Books is successful.

Large organizations like Time-Warner, CBS, ABC & NBC all provide niches for value-subtracted idiots to hide in, and the bureaucracies to protect them.

The publishing industry case in point, according to the writers I know, is the following:

"...the vast majority of first readers and acquisition editors can not recognize a story that straight men and boys may like, because those readers and editors are for the most part twenty-something females.

They are female because entry-level editorial jobs at major American publishers pay just a wee bit better than a summer internship -- and the jobs require one to live within commuting distance of some of America's most expensive cities.

The pay sucks so badly because every year, teeming masses of young women graduate from college with degrees in fields that don't lead to any clear, immediate career path. Thousands of them decide to move to New York City and get a job in publishing because, after all, they majored in English Literature. They all apply for the same seven first-reader positions that happen to be open at the time. The delighted publishers then hire the ones who will work for the lowest salaries. When promotional opportunities open up, the publishers hire from within -- i.e., from the pool of people of who have demonstrated an eager desire to work for an unbelievably low salary.

Guys who've graduated from college (with the exception of those who want to work on Broadway or in commercials) don't move to NYC for $25,000 a year jobs. Chicks do. Because NYC is glamorous, as is publishing.

So we wind up with a situation in which a huge portion of America's literary output is being filtered by young women who don't have a clue as to what straight boys and men like to read. Not surprising that what comes out of the filters is stuff that straight girls and women like to read."


Author John Ringo is now Baen's primary profit generator.

Baen being so small was the key to their recognizing Ringo & pulling him out of the first rejection slush piles.

Ringo's first novel was rejected by a young woman who had followed that exact career path listed above.

Jim Baen overrode that decision (and fired said first reader) because he read Ringo's stuff on the Baen fan board. They had a fan fiction section there and the fanboys there were all talking about how good Ringo's stuff was.

Baen went there, read it, found out what happened and the rest, as they say, is history.

Baen used his bulletin board fans as his unpaid for first readers and simply followed those with the best track record to promising new talent.

I just don't see any of the major media incumbants being able to "Do a Baen" and get back into the male market.

Their parent corporate cultures are so "value subtracting" that their buying a flat Baen like organization that "Got it" would see it destroyed inside a single TV season.

Whiskey said...

Mil-Tech -- THAT is a comment that I've heard repeated on John Nolte's "Dirty Harry's Place site" by those claiming to be producers/writers.

It's very insightful. I was unaware of just WHY I was reading mostly Baen Books. Now I know why. THANKS again for a very insightful comment.

Mr. M -- G4 has done relatively poorly. Mostly a marketing failure. They have relatively poor awareness levels.

Truth said...

G4 does not work because the host looks and acts gay/effeminate.

demosophist said...

This is a little off-topic, but I enjoy your analyses so thought I'd pose this question. What's the significance of the "falling man" opening sequence on Mad Men? It seems fairly obvious that it's related to the most famous falling man, on 9/11, Jonathan Briley. But what point are they making by using it in their opening sequence? Are they saying something like: corporate culture leads inevitably to 9/11? Or are they just using it to be a little artsy and edgy, suggesting just an immense insensitivity? Or, finally, is it a kind of subconscious drive to escape back to the world of pre-9/11, or at least the way they imagine it was?

Mil-Tech Bard said...

Whiskey,

I had a conversation with a demographic/marketing guy that you may find of interest. We were discussing the Breitbart media strategy in bighollywood.com and the launching biggovernment.com:


Mil-Tech Bard>>

Breitbart is winning a lot of eyes by providing news and commentary that the MSM won't.

The fact that Breitbart contributors are noticing and commenting on the fact that the Left/Pop culture/MSM infotainment complex has defined "Racism" as kissing Pres. Obama and black folks assests generally while "Whiting out" actual black racism in popular culture is just one of the reasons why they are gaining market share:

http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/djenkins/2009/09/17/kanye-west-doesnt-care-about-white-people/

Consider:

What would the reaction have been if Beyonce had won the award and Toby Keith had rushed the stage, grabbed the mic out of her hands, and yelled to the crowd that Taylor Swift should have won?

If this scene had played out as fiction in a feature film, how would the media elite have reacted to a scene perpetuating the stereotype of a black man aggressively grabbing something from the hands of a southern white girl?

Do you think we’ll be seeing any columns from Maureen Dowd or Entertainment Weekly pointing out racial undertones in the moment, mentioning Kanye’s history of discussing race or pointing out that the times he’s rudely interrupted a televised moment have all involved white people? Such as when he lost the Best New Artist award to, as he called her, “Redneck Woman” Gretchen Wilson, and stormed out of the American Music Awards in protest?

When do you think we’ll hear from Gloria Steinem or Gloria Allred defending Taylor as a victim of male domination (especially since MTV didn’t let her finish her speech because Kanye had caused her to run out of time), mentioning the history of female treatment in hip hop music?

Will the Southern Defense Coalition or the White Anti-Defamation League be making any statements?

Just curious…



Demographic/Marketing guy>>

Except if he's gonna do cultural criticism he has to get over "hip", because hip is over. Has been for ten years. Hip is a retro, backwards thing nowadays. Of course, it's also clung to frantically by Gen X and older Gen Ys, the same way the whole ridiculous Vegas/swinger/Rat Pack thing ran into the late 60s (despite being over) because of its popularity with the Silents.

Or in short, he's shooting at a target which is already retreating rapidly. Kanye West is also a great target for everyone (hell, even Obama could hit it; and I notice that Jenkins here was so startled by Obama saying something entirely reasonable that he slipped and called him "the President." But wasting time shooting at hipness nowadays is like writing a critique of Sammy Davis Jr. in 1968; no matter how right you are, you're beside the point.




Mil-Tech Bard>>

IOW, Breitbart is building an audience with Gen X and older Gen Ys who make up the majority of internet readers.

Youth culture today is not demographically big enough to change over all culture the way that the youth bulges of the Boomers, Gen X & Gen Y's have.

This is part of the reason why the MSM economic model is dying.

That and the fact they are ignoring 40% of the exiting consumer market -- Straight White Men.

Please Consider Jon Stewart's reaction to the ACORN videos in this light:

The whole "High School Musical III Hot White Preacher's daughter playing prostitute plus Dweeb as pimp" scam Breitbart playing to take down ACORN really does play to the straight white male demographic.