Why 2011 is not 1995

The April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing is thought by many Liberals and the Media (the two are interchangeable, for all practical purposes) to mark the beginning of President Clinton's comeback after Republicans retook the House in the 1994 midterm elections. The bombing, and Clinton's blaming of Talk Radio, Rush Limbaugh, and conservatives, was not the reason for his comeback. The Dot-Com bubble, cheap oil prices (West Texas Intermediate spot oil was $17.3 per barrel on July 1, 1995, which would be equivalent to $24.75 today). Nevertheless, the media and liberals both seized on the parallel, because of their tendency to act like a herd (and group-think), making Sarah Palin the Emmanuel Goldstein subject to the two minutes of hate (for Liberals and the Media, the novel "1984" is a how-to manual, not a warning). Which will ultimately fail. Because the modern media smog, while able to nudge culture in ways it wants to go anyway, is not as effective as people think.


Maudlin, emotion-mongering and two minutes of hate against Palin, might stimulate a few for a while but the effects merge into attention over Snooki and the Situation's antics, the doings (such as they are) of the Kardashians, gossip over a reputed catfight between Scarlett Johanssen and Sandra Bullock, and the return of American Idol. Everything seems to merge together into the culture/media smog, and nothing matters. Constant repetition over years can make some ideas seem "reasonable" (such as Hollywood's constant depiction of a Black President as wise, noble, tough, courageous, and redeeming) but only if the culture wants to go there.

Presidents are like football coaches. They have to deliver. And Obama must produce results. Just ask Denny Green, or Perry Fewell, or Herm Edwards, or Mike Singletary. All fired as head coaches. Results matter. The American people, including even SWPL White women, and professional class women, demand at the very least, no erosion in the amount and value of cash in their bank accounts. People like to spend. Buying things might be "retail therapy" but in the stress of isolation of modern life, it matters. The converse is also true, people, even SWPL women and professional class White women, ground zero of PC and "diversity" and multiculturalism, don't tolerate for long a grinding budget battle, in their own personal spending, as rising prices and stagnant wages make their discretionary spending each month, smaller and smaller.

Obama won, over John McCain, largely because the financial crisis under George W. Bush eroded any argument McCain had over competency, particularly given McCain's fairly obvious attempts to hand Obama the Presidency in order to gain the good opinion of the New York Times. But that same process requires Obama to post victories. Not meaningless legislative victories for passing bills (ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, Gays in the Military) that most oppose or don't care about. Instead, Obama has to get the equivalent of wins and playoff victories in the NFL. Or he will get fired.

Muni bonds are crashing, and the outlook for many bonds of this class is not good. Illinois is as much as five months behind payment to some vendors, and is floating a bizarre deal on Wall Street whereupon Investment Banks like Goldman Sachs would pay the vendors upfront, and then earn 1% each month from Illinois until the state can scratch up enough money to pay back the Investment Bank. Special-purpose bonds for say, Harrisburg's incinerator, or water districts, or sewage districts have already defaulted or are in the process of defaulting. Meanwhile, the WSJ reports:

Moody’s said the vendor assistance idea may alleviate near term hardships on the vendors, but will not deal with the underlying problem: the state doesn’t have the cash to pay vendors. The financing scheme essentially shifts the debt from the vendor to a private investor.

The tax raises in Illinois, to the tune of 75% or more, are unlikely to raise the revenue projected (people will pull in spending, move jobs out of state, and otherwise reduce their tax exposure as much as possible).

Meanwhile OPEC says no relief from oil price rises. The CEO of Gulf Oil believes $150 a barrel for oil is going to be a lengthy reality. Meanwhile there is a global food crisis that is only getting worse as we compete for China and India for food (and other commodities). The overthrow of the Tunisian President is unlikely to be the only fallout of the crisis. Food price rises have not been as dramatic in the US and developed world, but it will hit us eventually. Massive rises in feedstocks such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, up almost 80% (for some feedstock) from a year ago will increase, radically, the cost of meat, dairy, and eggs. Livestock don't exist on unicorn farts and rainbows. Meanwhile cotton prices are at historic highs, and so too are substitutes such as rayon.

What does this mean?

It means the average White professional woman, will be paying considerably more, in taxes (to bail out bankrupt states and municipalities). While shelling out more for gas every week at the pump, and the grocery store. Cotton clothing will be far more expensive, perhaps unaffordable (given 90% price rises from the past year), and rayon too will be far more costly (rayon being a rather inferior substitute for cotton, and far less comfortable). She'll be eating less of what she likes, and more of what she doesn't. Buying far less clothing, and inferior clothes to what she purchased just a few years ago (under George W. Bush).

These key voters, who will form either Obama's victory coalition (pushing him over the top along with Gay, Black, Hispanic, and elite White voters) or margin of defeat. Obama has already lost White male voters, blue collar White voters, while retaining Black and Hispanic voters. The margin of victory or defeat, is contained within the SPWL, professional class White woman voter demographic.

Obama's allies, no doubt Obama himself, and the media, have bet pretty everything that a massive campaign of two minutes of hate against Sarah Palin, maudlin emotion mongering, and blaming the Tea Party, Palin, and Rush Limbaugh for a leftwing nutcase's shooting of an obscure, if youngish White professional female Congresswoman, will be enough to win the votes of the SWPL female demographic.

It is a poor bet. One likely to fail. Yes, making Limbaugh and others in the Conservative movement in 1995 look responsible for Oklahoma City certainly helped with the Gender Gap, and generating White female votes for Democrats. But the real reason Clinton won was cheap gas and a booming economy. And that was with about 300 people killed. In a year, no one will even remember Gabrielle Giffords, sad to say. The American attention span is short. People are concerned mostly about their own economic situation.

Yes, the victims killed in the shooting were ignored, in favor of the photogenic, SWPL-like Congresswoman, to appeal to the emotions (along with the slain nine year old girl) of SWPL women. No doubt that is partially effective. But far more effective is the argument, "are you better off now than you were four years ago?" It cuts to the heart of the matter. Presidents are expected to deliver results, just like football coaches.

Obama, who has NEVER been able to deliver concrete, measurable results to voters, must now play defense, and deliver results. In less than two years. He must drive gas and oil and energy prices down. Considerably. While creating new jobs, wage increases, and an increase in real purchasing power (by increasing earnings more than price rises for commodities). It does not matter if a few million yuppies have enough money to buy new Iphones. What matters is Jane Professional woman, having enough left over after savings, paying for gas, and food, and other necessities, can spend enough to make her feel good without a gnawing anxiety over her personal budget.

Just ask Mike Singletary.