The Houston Chronicle quotes a demographer, Steve Murdock, who notes looking at population projections for Texas, "It's basically over for Anglos." The story reports that two out of every three Texas children are non-Anglo (almost all Mexican origin) and that will become even more pronounced in the future. Murdock is a former U.S. Census Bureau Director and is currently the Director of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University. Murdock says that Texas is divided into two: an aging Anglo population and a young, almost entirely Mexican origin population. This sets up the mother of all spoils battles: spend on mostly Mexican kids, or aging Whites. The impact of this spoils battle could conceivably, if it spirals out of control, lead to a break-up of the US along racial lines, at worst. Its been predicted, before, by men who are no fringe figures.
Between 2000 and 2040, the state's public school enrollment will see a 15 percent decline in Anglo children while Hispanic children will make up a 213 percent increase, he said.
The state's largest county - Harris - will shed Anglos throughout the coming decades. By 2040, Harris County will have about 516, 000 fewer Anglos than lived in the Houston area in 2000, while the number of Hispanics will increase by 2.5 million during the same period, Murdock said. The projection assumes a net migration rate equal to one-half of 1990-2000.
B y 2040, only 20 percent of the state's public school enrollment will be Anglo, he said. Last year, non-Hispanic white children made up 33.3 percent of the state's 4.8 million public school enrollment.
Of the state's 254 counties, 79 recorded declining population during the past 20 years. All are rural. An additional 30 Texas counties, he said, would have also lost population had they not experienced Hispanic growth.
The state's future looks bleak assuming the current trend line does not change because education and income levels for Hispanics lag considerably behind Anglos, he said.
Unless the trend line changes, 30 percent of the state's labor force will not have even a high school diploma by 2040, he said. And the average household income will be about $6,500 lower than it was in 2000. That figure is not inflation adjusted so it will be worse than what it sounds.
"It's a terrible situation that you are in. I am worried," Murdock said.
Whites are defacto minorities in California, Arizona, Texas, and Nevada. In California, Hispanics outnumber Whites absolutely, while in Arizona, Texas, and Nevada about two thirds of children under 14 are Hispanic, and only about a third White. If one believes in unicorns, rainbows, and fairies (the Tinkerbell kind, not the San Francisco leather-bound kind) then this will be no problem. "Magic" will sprinkle pixie dust on Hispanic children, magically making them achieve the same educational levels, same low levels of criminal activity, same economic levels, as the White populations they are replacing. And everyone will dance around singing Kumbayah and holding hands in one giant post-racial party, happy to have conquered "Whiteness." This is the fantasy of the Puritan-Progressive elite, and post-Quakers, the cultural heirs to the New England Puritans and Pennsylvania Quakers. Who believe in a mish-mash of "elect and damned" and "be nice to others, they'll be nice to you." The latter sound advice when your neighbors are the Amish, not so sound when they are MS-13 or the Zetas.
The reality is likely to be quite different. First, flight. As noted extensively in "Albion's Seed" by David Hackett Fischer, the response of the British Borderers and their "hillbilly" descendants has been first to flee. Then fight when left with no alternative. Fleeing is easier than fighting, and all cultural groups of White people, the New England Puritans, the Virginian Cavaliers, the Mid Atlantic Quakers, and the Appalachian Backwoodsmen, do their utmost to remove themselves culturally, physically, and socially from non-Whites. No group of White people clamors to live in the Ghetto or Barrio, instead they at best in times of high real estate prices urge gentrification, to move those people out of desirable real estate. At other times Whites cluster in exclusively White areas. Appalachian folk tend towards country music, NASCAR, and rural/suburban areas noted for their lack of non-Whites. Mid-Atlantic Quakers and Post Puritan-Progressives enjoy classical music, jazz and the blues (which Blacks have fled from in panic due to White popularity), 80's music, gentrified urban settings and "hip-trendy" outposts like Asheville NC or Austin TX that are nearly exclusively White. [The Cavaliers of Virginia of course are long dead and gone, culturally.] Even the most enthusiastic proponent in Hollywood of "magical Blackness" (that Spike Lee among others complain about) do their utmost to live in lily-White areas: Malibu, Santa Monica, Brentwood, etc. Indeed, at no time has all of White America been so exclusively White, and culturally as well as physically removed from Blacks and Hispanics. You won't find any Whites not even those most enthusiastic about illegal immigration and "the end of Whiteness" watching Sabado Gigante on Univision.
So fleeing will continue, until there is nowhere to flee to, by average Whites. Upper class, more wealthy Whites have already fled to exclusive White urban zones, such as Malibu or NYC's Upper East Side. But flight is not sustainable forever, and the other notable characteristic of the Backwoods folk is their propensity to fight, often to the bitter end, when cornered and their conception of "natural liberty" is infringed upon. Indeed, as the cultural grouping of Backwoods grows, at the expense of the Mid-Atlantic and Puritan-Progressive groupings, the tendency to fight to "protect your liberty" is only going to get stronger, and tinged with pure racial identification.
Being a Puritan-Progressive, or Mid-Atlantic utopianist, takes money and security. Without money to isolate one's self from non-Whites (and those outside your cultural grouping as well) it cannot be sustained. Without physical safety, a strong and efficient police force that crushes any attempt to victimize the White Puritan-Progressive or the Mid-Atlantic Utopian elites, that cultural grouping cannot be sustained. You cannot believe in original racial sin (Whites) and redemption (making Whites minorities in their own countries to get rid of those Backwoodsmen to whom all sin accrues) during a Home Invasion. Or your kid getting beat up at school due to "Whiteness" or any myriad other violent or hostile encounters with non-Whites asserting physical dominance, control, and so on. It is easy to decry the "stupid racism of Hillbillies" in Malibu gated communities and mansions. Much harder to do it when your neighborhood is over-run with MS-13 or the Zetas, and your kids get beat up every day. Or your household income takes massive hits just for private school to keep your kids from a daily beating. Or rising fuel costs force you into daily and bitterly resented contact with hostile non-Whites.
The ascendancy of the Puritan-Progressive and Mid-Atlantic utopian ideals, of pre-destined damned and saved, and magical goodness of non-Whites, depended on constantly rising incomes to produce enough economic margin to grow and convert Whites to that cultural grouping. A sustained downward spiral pushes Whites to nationalism, high rates of physical mobility, intense personal loyalty to a few leaders, and a desire to fight along clan/family/tribal basis for "natural liberty" i.e. the ideal of being left alone, government being merely a means for others, (in this case non-Whites) to oppress ordinary people. Call this the Hillbilly way. The Hillbilly Way tends to grow (a lot) when times turn hard, for a good long spell. [It was the political genius of FDR to pull Hillbillies his way, by deporting every Mexican he could, and preventing Blacks from unionizing or even voting in the same Democratic Primary as Whites, until 1944.]
Cue the spoils fights. There will be a "stuck group" that will not be able to flee to Whitopia, and indeed the Puritan-Progressive and Mid Atlantic Utopianists (motivated by sheer hatred of "the Hillbilly Way" and Hillbillies) have done their best to encourage a "drowning of Whiteness" (and hated cultural rivals) by importing masses of non-Whites, both Mexican illegal aliens, and various non-White refugees, and settling them in places like Idaho, or Wisconsin, or Minnesota, or Maine. Whitopia is no longer so White. Setting up the fight part of flight or fight.
Will an aging White population tax itself basically out of existence, to educate and provide welfare for non-Whites who are as a matter of course, both innately hostile to them and replacing them totally? The answer is no. Nor will a non-White population tax itself, or even devote a smidgen of public funds, to support aging Whites who they both despise and know they will replace. This extends of course to the current budget struggle in California, where Jerry Brown is hinting he'll dump State workers benefits and salaries, already agreed upon, to spend the money on Hispanics: health care, education, and welfare. Even with massive tax increases, the only way to keep spending mountains of money on the California Hispanic population is by gutting the money spent on mostly White state and local government workers.
At its possible worst, this sets the stage for what Igor Panarin predicted: civil war and secession over spoils and public spending. Widely dismissed as naïve and stupid at the time, Panarin (not a fringe figure, rather a respected dean of Russia's academy for diplomats) seems prophetic. While the exact breakdown of a US split and dissolution might be argued, it cannot be dismissed out of hand. Simply because there is no example, in all of human history, of a democratic republic being multi-racial and multicultural. At best, brutal dictators who rule with the help of a favored group, by mercilessly hounding the other out-groups, provide the stability of the grave. Tito, Stalin, Mithridates, Caesar Augustus, Ghengis Khan, all come to mind. Human beings simply are not built to trust and trade resources fairly and freely across racial lines in a republic (rights of minorities and dissenters respected) and democracy (majority rule). It has never ever happened in all of human history and culture, which is considerable. Because, quite likely, the kin-based nature of human evolution has pre-disposed us to cooperate on racial/cultural lines: people who reasonably look, act, sound, and otherwise resemble distant cousins. We certainly do have many examples, as Amy Chua's "World on Fire" show, of democratic majorities constantly victimizing minorities. The difference of course is that in the US, the minorities (Whites) are likely to fight back.
Here is what the man had to say (the map at the top of the post is from the WSJ story):
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
Yes, he sounds at least half-way accurate. Financial, demographic, and economic crisis have all hit the US at the same time. Indeed the crisis are largely driven by demographic trends. Replacing Whites with non-Whites would be problematic (based on human nature) if the replacers were wealthier than Whites. Given that they are in fact much poorer and remain so, this makes conflict of some sort (hopefully only political) inevitable.
Of course, violent secession is not set in stone. But neither is it an unlikely fantasy. Fleeing Whites who were in effect ethnically cleansed out of California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Florida are unlikely to be willing to transfer funds from wealthier White states such as Idaho, or South Dakota, to Texas and the rest of the "Mexico Norte" states. Money to be spent on the very people who ethnically cleansed them out of their homes in the first place. Nor is there any way to construct a "grand bargain" -- Hispanics (mostly all Mexicans) spending money to care for an aging White population in exchange for taxes spent to educate poor Mexicans and provide welfare. First, there will not be enough money to go around, the average income gap per household is about $16,000 of White vs. Hispanic in 2009 dollars according to the US Census Bureau. There has been no narrowing the gap over the last twenty years, instead it has only increased. And socially, Hispanics have had growing maladaptive behaviors to increase income: growing not decreasing levels of illegitimacy, growing not decreasing levels of drop out rates, growing not decreasing levels of Spanish only language skills. Meanwhile the burden of providing health, education, and welfare of a desperately poor population of illegal aliens and one only slightly less desperately poor (the children of illegal aliens and every descendant afterwards) increases exponentially.
There would be barely enough money to provide for White social security and other retirement issues (health care). There is without question not enough money to provide for the "Mexicanization" of much of the United States. The health care, education, and welfare needs are so great that even if no money was spent at all on elderly Whites, there would not be enough to go around. Poor people, it seems, cost a lot.
Which means conflict. This conflict can be done by more peaceful means, through political action that makes decisions stick, by forcing those without means and power to fight back to accept a fait-accompli (basically a re-run of the Trail of Tears, some form of mass deportations of the out-group), or a process that spirals out of control into violence. Given the entrenched interests that benefit from Mexicanization of America, and the sheer hatred of "Hillbillies" by Progressive-Puritans and Mid Atlantic Idealists, a good bet is on the latter. Of course, any such process is likely 15 to 25 years out, but it is highly likely at some point. A good many political analysts predicted the Civil War by 1835, and as note by Panarin, the collapse of the USSR by the 1970's. America could no more remain half-slave and half-free as it can half-Mexican-dominated and half-not-Mexican-dominated. The cultural, economic, political, and mass population conflicts in each case make some sort of total loser/total winner outcome, by whatever means, almost inevitable.
In this case, it is worth noting that the US military already remains in the views of some, dangerously isolated and quite angry at much of Establishment America. This story from Politico touches on the divide between "peacetime America" and the Wartime Military. Columbia Students shouted "racist" at a wounded, wheel-chair bound vet who spoke out for ROTC on campus, while others jeered and laughed at his injuries. Meanwhile US Defense Secretary Robert Gates worries:
A decade of constant conflict has trained a junior officer corps with exceptional leadership skills, he told the cadets, but the Army may find it difficult in the future to find inspiring work to retain its rising commanders as it fights for the money to keep large, heavy combat units in the field.
“Men and women in the prime of their professional lives, who may have been responsible for the lives of scores or hundreds of troops, or millions of dollars in assistance, or engaging or reconciling warring tribes, may find themselves in a cube all day re-formatting PowerPoint slides, preparing quarterly training briefs, or assigned an ever-expanding array of clerical duties,” Mr. Gates said. “The consequences of this terrify me.”
Hmmm … let me see now. An officer corps, almost exclusively White, Southern/Western, conservative, mirrored fairly completely down to the lowest detail of enlisted men? A feckless, and clueless national leadership intent on massively changing the way of life of pretty much everyone in the country that is also innately hostile to the Military itself? Mixed with an economic crisis, fiscal crisis, and political crisis all tracing their origins to what amounts to complete demographic replacement of Whites by Mexicans in the US, all without any vote or constitutional amendment? Where have I seen anything like this before? Add to this the de-industrialization of the North and North East, and growing move of what little manufacturing there is to Southern and Western states, and things look different than in 1860.
Naturally, and often fortunately, the future does not move in straight lines. Something is endurable, until it becomes un-endurable. Various agitators are effective, or not. Crisis that should have been foreseen, sneak up on everyone while distraction over piddling events reigns. Human error or courage, stupidity or wisdom, change events from a certainty to a new course. Sometimes even natural disasters can take a hand in shaping history. The Kamikaze originally referred to the near-miraculous typhoon that sunk the Mongol Invasion fleet that would have easily conquered Japan. The Monguls were near invincible. Save for water.
So it is possible, and hopeful, that Mexican immigration into this country slows dramatically, and is even reversed. That sudden cutbacks in welfare spending provoke a soul-searching and wrenching amount of changes in Hispanic behavior, with norms of marriage before children, educational striving, and low crime being a sudden radical shift. Anything can happen. Perhaps an early encounter, with the "aging Anglo population" getting its way with fiscal policy, can create a rapid desire for assimilation by the coming Mexican majority.
The smart bet based on Human History, however, says greed and stupidity will preclude any rational attempt to settle a division of resources and control, short of violence and brutal coercion, and America will indeed slide into the conflict envisioned by Igor Panarin. Not of course, right away. But inevitably, as the call of the trumpets at Shiloh and Bull Run and Gettysburg were heard even in 1835, so the siren call of war and conflict is being heard already. Driven by fundamental conflicts.
It is all over for Anglos in Texas. Also California, Arizona, Florida, and probably Illinois. Whites are now the functional minority, in the US. While being the target of non-Whites for resource extraction, the White to non-White gap in income being considerable and growing. Amy Chua's model of "market dominant minorities" will probably hold for Bill Gates kids, and Warren Buffett's, and perhaps even Mitt Romney's kids. But for the great rest of the average White guy, flight will soon turn into fight. Because life as basically a third class citizen in Mexico Norte is worth fighting to avoid, everything else notwithstanding. With conveniently, a great deal of military men who got battlefield training (Lee and the other Southern Commanders all had extensive experience in the Mexican-American War, the Union Officer Corps till Grant and Sherman were time-serving non-entities who had no real combat/leadership experience) and find little else to interest them. While a great deal of the current New England/Mid Atlantic elite holds them in mutual contempt and disgust.
Ultimately, a non-White America will resemble Mexico, only slightly better off. The same levels of corruption, violence, and government services will prevail. With an added feature of ethnically/racially driven violence and government discrimination. Good government, security, prosperity, all cost money. They can only be achieved, history shows us, with an ethnically and culturally unitary, large and dominant middling class that controls the government and directs its spending and aims for its own ends. There is a reason the Philippines and places like it are chaotic, violent, and poor. Despite the ability to punish and extract at times resources from Chua's "Market Dominant Minorities."
In any conflict, moreover, the initiative remains with a more unified, disciplined, experienced, and smarter opponent. Sheer numbers can at times overwhelm, but at other times provide only carnage and cannon fodder. Speed, mobility, surprise, and most critical of all, discipline under chaos tend to produce the most winners, in politics and in war. Conflict of some sort is coming, that much is certain. You cannot have population replacement, a welfare state, and legalized racial caste systems (Whites on bottom) and not have conflict in some form. Let us hope and pray the basic resource division: spend on older Whites or younger Hispanics, is settled short of violence with conclusive finality, through political means, avoids a break-up of the US, and restores a racial unity and peacefulness to America.