The NFL's Michael Vick Problem

The NFL has a Michael Vick problem. One that won't go away, and is tied to the racialism of the Black population. Michael Vick is viewed as a hero by Blacks, and largely (though not exclusively) badly by Whites. Michael Vick is the most hated man in sports, according to one poll. A full 82% of Blacks think Vick should be playing football, while only 42% of Whites think so, writes Juan Williams in the Wall Street Journal.

The NFL just recently awarded Michael Vick the "Comeback Player of the Year" for 2010. Yet, as we can see in the video below, Vick himself remains the man that he always was. Quite likely, a future (or uncaught) sadistic serial killer. Vick according to sworn testimony drowned, hanged, electrocuted, and beat to death dogs that did not fight (well). He threw a family pet into a fighting ring with dogs and laughed as it was torn to pieces. This is sadism for the point of sadism, nothing less. One that the Black community, largely supports. For nothing less than racial solidarity and racialism (if not indeed racism itself).


Vick was just recently awarded the keys to Dallas by the Black Mayor Pro-Tem, in front of a cheering, adoring crowd of Black attendees.



The NFL has bent over backwards to adopt and endorse Michael Vick, despite his sadism and brutality, writ large, because he is Black. A White player would have been (correctly) ostracized and forbidden to play in the NFL.

The NFL is making two, large and related bets. The first is that the Lockout will not seriously impair either short-term or long-term revenues. With a guarantee of $3 billion out of $4 billion from its TV contracts, the short term part of that bet seems a solid wager, providing that the TV networks don't simply dump the contract or refuse to pay, gambling that they can always go back to the table and get a cheaper deal after the strike. Contracts, after the GM and Chrysler bailouts and forced closures of dealerships (decided by the White House based largely on race and gender) are no longer certain. So the NFL has a risk, however unknown, to its short-term strategy for the lockout.

The other part of their gamble is their Black-courting will not seriously impact their long-term viewership and thus their revenue. Since the largest portion of their revenue is dependent on TV viewership and essentially, the White audience.

The Superbowl had a record number of viewers, 111 million. But it might be the high water mark. As Steve Sailer has noted, the transition of Whites to a minority population, and one that is proceeding rapidly, in a "multicultural" (i.e. Barack Obama's call to Whites to "get to the back of the bus") way, means tribalism among Whites. Including White football fans.

This does not mean a return of the Klan, or a desire for racial punishment, or racial based violence. The White population is too middle class, comfortable, and non-violent for that sort of thing (I am skeptical of any view of "racial enlightenment" or moralism, but middle class people don't engage in street fights). David Duke, with Whites at about 65% of the population, lives in deserved penury in a trailer park in Monroe LA. Not Hell but you can see it from there. Meanwhile Louis Farrakhan is a neighbor of Barack Obama's, and lives in a mansion bigger than Oprah's, with more goons too than the Queen of daytime talk TV. This with Blacks at 12.9% of the population.

What the NFL risks is a steady, race-based erosion of the White fans as the worship and adulation of the Black thugs that increasingly make up its player base gets out of hand. The NBA has a TV contract of around $1 billion or so, in total, so the NFL is risking essentially about $3 billion dollars, in catering to what amounts to 12.9% of the population, and has only 40% of that figure in the middle class.

It is true that a non-trivial portion of White women find the adventures of the Kardashians with various Black athletes fascinating. See also "Kendra" and others of that ilk. But Women make up only 25% or so of the NFL audience. White men are the base, and they find players like Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees the most likable. TV commercials and endorsements bear this out. The NFL sells "Sunday Ticket" by Peyton Manning, mostly. They don't use Michael Vick. Young White men find Black rappers hyper-masculine thuggery worthy of emulation. But the NFL is largely a middle aged fan-base sport. Younger White male viewers make up a small portion of its audience.

There is no cost to "switch" to another sport for an NFL fan. College Football, Hockey, Baseball, Soccer, UFC, all are broadcast on cable and over-the-air stations. Particularly after a strike/lockout, it is quite likely that viewership will remain lower, and fans can and will migrate to other sports. Baseball experienced this with the lockout/strike and steroid scandal in the 1990's, never regaining its prior popularity. The dearth of White players and influx on a massive scale of Afro-Carribean players however also played a major part in the disappearing audience and fanbase.

Black film-makers complain all the time, accurately, that Black audiences are tired of seeing mostly White leads in films oriented towards White audiences. They argue that White actors and White-themed movies are of little interest to Black audiences. Which seems an eminently logical and sensible position. But the converse would also be true, that White audiences have little interest in Black-themed movies featuring Black actors. The turnout for the "Friday" films and the movies with Tyler Perry would seem to back this up.

There is nothing wrong with, and a good deal right with, Black film-makers creating movies just for Black audiences. A free and open country ought to allow just such things. But no one can force White audiences to go see "Diary of A Mad Black Woman" either. And in a nation where Whites are rapidly becoming a minority, and losing majority status, while meanwhile having the lowest position on the multi-cultural totem pole, the "slack" the White audience is likely to cut racially-based endorsement of thuggery and sadism in the NFL is not very large.

The Superbowl featured a Pepsi Max commercial where a Black woman and Black man, a couple, were sitting on a park bench as a very attractive blonde female jogger passes by, and flirts with the Black man. The Black woman throws the can hard at the Black Man, who ducks, and the can knocks out the White blonde female jogger as the couple runs away. This ad would have been inconceivable with the races reversed. It is an arrow pointing to cultural, social, and political power, as currently positioned by the elites.

Pepsi can make this commercial, but they cannot force the White population to buy it. The most likely outcome is not violence and protest by Whites, but simply a slump in sales by an ever smaller White population. In that sense, Whites in America are becoming "Israeli" in attitudes. Figuring themselves beset by a large, intractably hostile population, a premium on in-group solidarity and matching racialism and race-based attitudes is likely to emerge. As Steve Sailer noted, if White tribalism is a problem, then Whites should not have been made a minority in the US.

Certainly, there are non-trivial portions of elite Whites (I know personally of one) who are older, who find it proper and just in a "eternal damnation" post-Calvinist way, that Whites be punished for "original racial sin" by first "taking the country from the Indians" and then slavery and segregation. That it is right and proper to make Whites a last-class minority in their own country (through illegal immigration). But the whole process of the Tea Party is the throwing off, of the RINO-esque, Media-based, SWPL elites. Including, culturally, Roger Goodell and the NFL. Which itself from the Rooneys and Michael Vick, are part of the Obama political coalition. [One can reasonably predict a full pardon for Michael Vick by Obama after the 2010 Presidential Elections. Because Michael Vick is Black. No other reason.]

A White population that experiences economic growth and is around 80-90% of the population, can tolerate such racialism. Culturally, politically, and socially, it is a minor price to pay to buy social peace, because the burden is light. A White population that is rapidly reduced to minority status, and discriminated (permanently) is guaranteed to become "Israeli" in attitude. Particularly as any residual "White guilt" (always overplayed anyway) ends and elite status-mongering becomes tiresome. Again, the experience of Israel is a guide. Labor and the Left in general simply fell apart, due to demographic pressure by Arab growth inside Israel and the Occupied Territories. Majorities pushed to minority status do not always embrace violence but they always embrace tribalism.

The NFL can call anyone who does not openly admire Michael Vick "a racist" but they can't force the White audience to watch the games. It is certainly unlikely that Whites will abandon the NFL en-masse, but even significant erosion can poison the NFL's prospects for growth, given that the NFL depends entirely on the White male audience in the US (it has failed to expand anywhere else). Even 25% of the viewership simply declining to watch the NFL for other sports or pursuits can impact the bottom line seriously.

Michael Vick may get the keys to Dallas from an adoring Black Mayor Pro-Tem, and adoring (largely) Black crowd, but the reaction to the video (gone viral over the internet, Hotair has it) is likely to be a silent decline in viewership as White guys figure the NFL is simply too Black for them. The net result? A loss eventually of around $3 billion in revenue, as the NFL sinks to NBA level of popularity and support.

Jerry Jones "Jones Mahal" seems pretty stupid now. As Yogi Berra once said, if they don't wanna come out the ballpark, how ya gonna stop em?



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Can Brett Favre Save the NFL?

The Wall Street Journal disclosed that Brett Favre's Jersey is the best seller in 19 states, Favre being one of just eight players whose jersey is a top seller in more than one state, far out ranking that of the other seven players. This is a problem for the NFL, because their business is in a potential crisis: they don't have (many) popular players, and many of their best known players are thugs who alienate the mostly White, middle aged fans. This is particularly dicey for the NFL given that it's four largest TV deals expire in 2014 and TV networks are under huge earnings pressure. The NFL is caught between a mostly Black, thuggish player corps threatening to alienate the mostly White and Middle class fans, and the demands of PC and Multiculturalism. Perhaps only Brett Favre can "save them" by buying space and time while the NFL figures out what to do and develops more popular players.


The NFL will have its deals with NBC (after a deal in August to extend "Sunday Night Football in America" to two more years, through the 2013 season), CBS, FOX, and ESPN expire at the same time. The league nets about $3.1 billion per year from those deals, and about $1 billion a year from the DirectTV Sunday Ticket deal, which expires year later, at the conclusion of the 2014 season. The NFL Network deal is about $400 million a year for the league, although that is mere book-keeping given that the NFL owns NFL Network. Altogether the NFL nets somewhere north of $4.1 billion a year from TV revenue, given that it likely makes a small profit on the NFL Network via advertising and cable/satellite fees in addition to the main TV deals. This is serious money, that is shared relatively equally among the league, forming the core revenue of many smaller teams (Buffalo, Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Seattle come to mind). The the failure to develop new appealing stars, and a serious problem with thuggery by a significant number of its players, threatens this extraordinary revenue stream, the best in professional sports.

Michael Vick is the best example of polarizing figures, and an ominous one for the NFL. A recent poll noted the huge racial disparity — Blacks support Vick returning to the NFL by 82%, while Whites oppose it by 46%. Meanwhile a survey of NFL fans finds that53% don't want Vick on their team. Vick, it must be noted, engaged in a long-term gambling ring (dog-fighting), threw family pets into dogfights to be torn apart (and laughed at it), and personally hung, electrocuted, beat to death, and drowned dogs that would not fight or failed to fight well. According to sworn testimony, he found killing the dogs "funny" and amusing. Indicating a strong streak of sadism that characterizes the progression of serial killers. All this while Vick had a multi-year deal worth $130 million.

According to Alan Barra at the Wall Street Journal, 67% of the 1,696 players on the NFL's per-team 53 man active player roster are Black. About 31% are White, with a small sampling of other ethnicities. Using the US Census Factfinder this compares to a population that is 74% White and 12% Black (based on the 2005-2007) survey. With the 2008 estimated data, the Census Bureau reports 80% White to 13% Black. Even by the most conservative estimates, America remains a very White nation, and with the Black Middle class being only 40% of Blacks, or about 5% of the total population. The most "Black" of the sports leagues, the NBA, is believed to be getting $930 million a year from all its broadcasting partners. Estimates vary for the percentage of White players in the NBA, from 9% to 20%, complicated by a good percentage of White players being foreign born (example: LA Lakers player Pau Gasol, is from Spain).

Clearly, while the mostly White sports fans can and will readily accept a large percentage of teams comprised of Black players, television revenues decline as team rosters become uniformly Black, and particularly when few "stars" who are both amiable sports figures and achievers in the game, are White. No one can force the mostly White, middle class, and middle aged sports fans to watch games, either on TV or in person. Sports fans not watching, means lucrative Television deals are renewed at far lower rates. League licensed apparel sits in warehouses or must be sold at discount rates. Corporate sponsorships are dropped or are renewed at far lower rates. This is not surprising. People like to watch people who resemble (idealized) versions of themselves.

Cleveland Wide Receiver Donte Stallworth, convicted of a DUI manslaughter, remains under house arrest but is on the Cleveland Browns roster, though currently suspended by the NFL. The murder charge against Raven's Linebacker Ray Lewis, the Las Vegas shooting that paralyzed a security guard in a strip club by the entourage of Pac Man Jones, Jones later fighting with the Dallas Cowboys bodyguard-minder, involvement in gambling, the murder conviction of Carolina Panthers Wide Receiver Rae Carruth, are all problematic for the NFL. Michael Vick's actions did not bolt out of the blue, rather he was merely the latest in a long trend that dates back to the 1990's.

It is perhaps inevitable in that with 1,696 active players, many of them raised by single mothers in Black ghettos, finally getting enormous amounts of money, fame, praise, and attention, and being able to slide by most of society's rules by athletic achievement since early adolescence, that year in and year out, there will be shocking, and often vile behavior by a few of them. In 1963, both "Golden Boy" Green Bay Quarterback Paul Hornung and Detroit Lions All-Pro Defensive Tackle Alex Karras were suspended for one year for gambling. Showing that even White, middle class players are susceptible to bad behavior.

John Madden has noted that the overwhelming majority of NFL players are good people, who anonymously work for numerous charities, giving of their time and money (from players whose average career lasts only 5 years). Warrick Dunn, for example, was the Walter Payton Man of the Year in 2005, and has established a charity to purchase homes for single parents in memory of his mother, who was murdered working a shift as a security guard. Dunn is hardly alone, NFL players like the Manning brothers, Peyton and Eli, chartered trucks with food and water to Katrina victims in New Orleans, in the aftermath of that hurricane.

But the overall decent nature of NFL players is not enough. The NFL has a star problem. Few of their stars are White, and even fewer of them are the sort of "funny" and self-deprecating characters that generate ratings, ticket sales, and fanatical fans generating over $4 billion a year in Television revenues.

The League tried to "sell" variously Tom Brady, Ladainian Tomlinson, Donovan McNabb, Phillip Rivers, and Brady Quinn, among others, and found few takers. Despite being featured in DirectTV "Sunday Ticket" commercials, and a few others, Rivers and Tomlinson lacked the sort of charisma needed to connect with fans. Brady and McNabb, meanwhile, came off as arrogant, with a side order of whining (about how hard it was to be a Black Quarterback) from McNabb. This in the year that Eli Manning and Rex Grossman were roasted on sports talk radio. Brady Quinn, while personable, has yet to accomplish anything interesting on the field.

Meanwhile the NFL's most popular star remains: Brett Favre. It's no secret, Favre has charisma, the older White male NFL fans identify with the man who will be 40 in October. This is why his jersey sold so much, setting the single day record for the NFL's online shops when he signed with the Vikings this Summer. After Favre, the 33 year old Peyton Manning, the 38 year old Arizona Cardinals QB Kurt Warner, the 27 year old Ben Roethlisberger, and the 30 year old Drew Brees are popular, amiable, and visible Quarterbacks (the marquee position of the game). The 29 year old Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo has yet to accomplish anything in the post-season, limiting his popularity.

NFL fans like particularly QBs who have won in the post-season, particularly Superbowl champs, and who are amiable with a sense of humor about themselves. Arrogance finds few admirers, while humor finds many. Tom Brady has played in four Superbowls, winning three of them, and being the MVP of two. Yet he remains, unpopular, compared to Peyton Manning or Brett Favre, who have won only one Superbowl a piece. Clearly, persona counts, and Brady, despite his accomplishments on the field, has been unable to connect to fans. Clearly humor (both Favre and Manning are funnier than Brady) counts for a lot. Above all, the games are entertainment.

The problem for the NFL is that Favre and Warner have only a few more years left, if that. Peyton Manning is 33, Eli Manning is 28, and Drew Brees is 30. These are players who are all getting older, and of them, only Peyton has connected with the public in a wide fashion. Roethlisberger is an up and coming player, with two Superbowl victories, a general amiable on-screen presence, but despite his size has a history of injuries, a potential scandal (a rape charge that appears a bogus extortion attempt, but still exists) and a team that does not feature much passing by the QB. Roethlisberger, however, is the one potential younger star in the NFL that could possibly replace Brett Favre.

It is true that players, particularly quarterbacks who maintain rigorous off-season conditioning programs and do not run much, can play much longer than in previous years. But even so, the current crop of NFL QBs beyond the ones listed above have yet to connect with the wider NFL audience and fan base. Brett Favre, assuming he can play a full season, and take the Vikings into the post-season, might just buy the NFL another year to help develop Roethlisberger, Brees, and perhaps Brady Quinn into more appealing stars that generate interest in the mostly White fan-base.

So far, the ESPN Monday Night Football double header did very well. The come from behind victory by the Patriots over the (hapless) Buffalo Bills averaged 14 million viewers, beating the number for the most viewers by cable set last Summer by TLC's "John and Kate Plus 8" (10.6 million viewers). The week before Christmas in 2008, the CBS NFL game pulled in 20 million viewers. This compares with the 16.9 million season average for the CBS new show (that season) "the Mentalist." With, it must be noted, hard to attract male viewers making up most of the 20 million viewers, compared to a likely female-majority audience for "the Mentalist."

Clearly, the NFL is popular. Football is an amazing game, like chess where the pieces collide into each other at high speed and with great force. At its best, the game can be complex, fast paced, exciting, and with huge momentum changes from play to play. Featuring grace and power together, along with team-work and huge amounts of cooperation under a paternal, older male authority figure. But the game itself, though a large part of the NFL's appeal, is not enough to sustain the more than $4 billion a year revenue from television contracts, particularly with all deals expiring in four years.

The college game offers the same thrills, and it is no accident that ESPN promotes both clean-cut (and White) QBs such as Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow, as well as "conference buster" teams such as Boise State, BYU, and Utah, that offer a larger proportion of White players, and a more accessible image.Football fans who find mostly unattractive "stars" such as Donovan McNabb, or Michael Vick, or Tom Brady, can simply substitute the College games. It is as easy as flipping the channel.

What Bret Favre allows the NFL is time. Time to promote more clean-cut, amiable stars. The happy focus on a feel-good story of an aging QB trying to help a team loaded with talent get into the playoffs, instead of a nascent serial killer as the NFL's most-publicized QB. Favre, at least while he plays, can starve the Michael Vick story of oxygen. Which clearly the NFL needs.

It was rumored that Jessie Jackson (with the help of former Colts head coach Tony Dungy) threatened a public protest if Vick was not re-instated by the NFL, and predictably, the NFL caved. That caving however, has a huge risk. Fans could simply turn away in enough numbers that the NFL resembles the NBA in fan base (and revenues) instead of what it is now. If Michael Vick is the face of the NFL, with the current Black player roster percentage (67%), those astonishing viewer levels for games will likely be cut in half.

Perhaps the man who ultimately replaced Michael Vick in Atlanta, Matt Ryan, can become a fan favorite nationwide, or hapless Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford revive the moribund franchise the way Peyton Manning did the Colts. The NFL had better use the extra year Favre gave them to find something. Fans have to want to see players win, if not, significant numbers of them will simply not watch.
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